Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NHL, Sep 29

Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube, center top, speaks to the bench during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Dallas Stars, Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025, in Dallas.
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
  • The Maple Leafs are a -1.5 goal favorite vs. the Canadiens
  • Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals
  • TV Channel: RSN | TVA

The Montreal Canadiens (0-0) visit Scotiabank Arena to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs (0-0) on Sep. 29 in Toronto, ON. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The Maple Leafs are betting favorites in this NHL hockey matchup, with the puck line sitting at -1.5 (+200).

The Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Over/Under is 6.5 total goals.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Spread (Puck line)Total (O/U)2-Way Moneyline
Canadiens+1.5 -2756.5 -120-110
Maple Leafs-1.5 +2006.5 +100-110

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction:

The winning team model predicts the Maple Leafs will win this game with 50.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive and defensive matchups, and recent game results.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Canadiens will cover the spread with 68.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performance for both teams, opening and current betting lines, plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


NHL Odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook


  • [team high – away]
  • [team high – home]

Canadiens Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Canadiens are 0-0 against the spread this NHL season (+0 Units / 0% ROI).

  • Canadiens are 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units /0% ROI
  • Canadiens are 0-0 when betting the Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Canadiens are 0-0 when betting the Under for +0 Units /0% ROI

Maple Leafs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Maple Leafs are 0-0 against the spread this NHL season (+0 Units /0% ROI).

  • Maple Leafs are 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Maple Leafs are 0-0 when betting the Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Maple Leafs are 0-0 when betting the Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI

Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions for for Maple Leafs vs Canadiens

Player Name Odds to Score a Goal
Cole Caufield (MTL) +135
Auston Matthews (TOR) +150
William Nylander (Tor) +180
John Tavares (Tor) +195
Nick Suzuki (MTL) +220
Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL) +230

Canadiens: Keys to the Game vs. Maple Leafs

The Canadiens were 46-33 (.582) last season — 6th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500

The Canadiens were 26-13 (.667) when scoring a power play goal last season — 9th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .592

The Canadiens were 13-7 (.650) when allowing 35 or more shots on goal last season — 5th best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .474

The Canadiens were 13-6 (.684) when tied after the second period last season — 3rd best among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500

Maple Leafs: Keys to the Game vs. Canadiens

The Maple Leafs were 32-47 (.405) last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500

The Maple Leafs were 10-17 (.370) when tied after the first period last season — 4th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .500

The Maple Leafs were 5-11 (.312) when drawing more penalties last season — 5th lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .481

The Maple Leafs were 23-40 (.365) when allowing 5 or more rush chances last season — 3rd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: .461

The Canadiens had 3.5 points per game while tied last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.7

The Canadiens secondary assisted on 210 goals last season — tied for 4th most among NHL Teams

The Canadiens had 855 cycle chances last season — 6th most among NHL Teams

The Canadiens secondary assisted on 83 goals while tied last season — most among NHL Teams

The Maple Leafs have 1.6 rush chances per game in the first period since the start of the 2024-25 season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Maple Leafs averaged 0.81 expected goals per game in the first period last season — lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 0.94

The Maple Leafs scored on 6% of rush chances in the second period last season — 2nd lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 10%

The Maple Leafs had 1.5 rush chances per game in the first period last season — tied for lowest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Canadiens allowed 6 second chance scoring opportunities in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams

The Canadiens allowed opponents to score on 8% of rush chances last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 11%

The Canadiens allowed 29 high danger chances in 4v4 situations last season — most among NHL Teams

The Canadiens allowed 200 second chance scoring opportunities last season — most among NHL Teams

The Maple Leafs allowed 7.7 rush chances per game last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 6.4

The Maple Leafs allowed 2.9 rush chances per game in the second period last season — highest among NHL Teams; League Avg: 2.3

The Maple Leafs made 30.8 saves per game last season — best among NHL Teams; League Avg: 26.8

The Maple Leafs allowed 607 rush chances last season — most among NHL Teams


National Hockey League Betting at BetMGM

At the BetMGM online sportsbook, NHL betting is available throughout the year.

Hockey betting lines are posted for the latest Maple Leafs Stanley Cup odds, Oilers playoffs odds, live betting, and more. 

BetMGM also has the odds for the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year.

The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.