Canada vs. Spain Odds & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

Team Canada (+900) heads into this matchup with the second-best basketball odds to win a gold medal, defeating Australia 93-83 in their last game.

Spain (+8000) took down Greece 84-77 in their last game, improving to 1-1 in tournament play.

Let’s take a look at the odds and predictions of this matchup.

Canada vs. Spain Odds

• Canada Spread: -9.5
• Spain Spread: +9.5
• Moneyline: Canada -500, Spain +375
• Total: 157.5

Canada vs. Spain Prediction

I predict that Canada covers the spread, as they got a well-balanced scoring effort from their starting lineup in their last game against Australia.

RJ Barrett led the Canadians with 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting, seven rebounds, five assists, and two steals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting, four rebounds, three assists, three steals, and two blocks.

Gilgeous-Alexander kept the ball on a string and had his defender go through a spin cycle on his first jumper of the game, proving how unguardable he truly is.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doing SGA things pic.twitter.com/EgtFrvfVAv

— Global Hoops Daily (@worldhoopsfan) July 30, 2024

Barrett continued to attack the rim with success, but he also canned three 3-pointers, which gave the Canadians an easy go-to option whenever SGA drew nearly every defender’s attention by simply having the ball in his hands.

Dillon Brooks also scored 16 points, and Lu Dort contributed 11 points and three steals.

Canada was active in the passing lanes, forcing Australia into 18 turnovers while scoring 28 points off those giveaways. 

The Canadians scored 15 of those points in the third quarter alone, helping neutralize Australia’s hot shooting in the paint. 

Australia outscored Canada 30-16 in the paint in the first half, as the Canadians had trouble cutting off driving lanes and staying in front of opposing bigs and bigger guards. But Canada limited Australia to just 16 points in the paint in the second half.

Santi Aldama led Spain with 19 points and 12 rebounds in their win over Greece. Sergio Llull added 13 points and seven assists.

Willy Hernangomez contributed 11 points and seven rebounds. Lorenzo Brown had seven points and 10 assists. 

Spain shot 15 of 31 from 3-point land, but they also generated 15 points at the free-throw line and scored several buckets near the rim.

Hernangomez and Aldama could exploit Canada’s lack of size in this matchup, given their abilities to inflict some serious damage in the paint offensively and grab boards.

However, I believe that Canada’s active hands in the passing lanes on defence and their bevy of perimeter defenders will run Spain off the line and prevent them from getting the same clean looks they got from downtown against Greece.

Spain committed 15 turnovers in their last game. Given Canada’s ability to get out on the break and score in transition, that should definitely help the Canadians put more points on the board, further justifying why Canada covering the spread is my best online sportsbook bet to make.