Buffalo Bills Predictions, Odds, Best Bets: Week 3

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a big-time Week 2 win on the road against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, picking off Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa three times. 

Buffalo is among the four NFL odds favourites to win Super Bowl 59 after the win. The defence showed the ability to make plays in Week 2, which was a concern after Week 1. 

In Week 3, they’ll take on the Jaguars, a team that’s had one of the worst offences in the NFL through the season’s first two games. 

The BetMGM online sportsbook has the Bills as 6-point underdogs entering the Week 3 contest. 

You can also check out our Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars prediction and odds preview.

Week 3 Buffalo Bills Best Bets

Spread: Bills -5.5

The football odds have the Bills as home favourites in Week 3 on Monday Night Football. They’re 6-point favourites, and while that’s understandable, this feels a bit like a trap game. 

The Bills played well in Week 2, and a big part of that was their defence’s three interceptions of Tagovailoa. 

Lawrence hasn’t been great, completing 51% of his passes, but he hasn’t thrown interceptions just yet. He did throw 14 in 2023, but against the Bills in Week 5 on the road, Lawrence completed 25 of 37 passes for 315 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. His 315 passing yards were the second-most he threw in a game. They beat the Bills 25-20. 

The Jaguars offence has been stagnant, scoring just 17 in Week 1 and 13 in Week 2. They lost on a last-second field goal in Week 1, and if not for safety in Week 2, they had a chance to kick a field goal, tie the game, and head to overtime. 

The Jaguars defence has held the Dolphins and Browns to 19 points per game. 

Sure, Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson aren’t Josh Allen, but Allen still threw for 359 yards against them last year, including two touchdowns and an interception. He didn’t get sacked a single time. 

This feels like a game where the Bills are the better team from bell to bell but win 21-17. 

I genuinely don’t feel great about either side, but thanks to their defence, I’ll lean Jaguars here. 

Pick: Jaguars +5.5

Moneyline: Bills (-250)

The Bills football betting moneyline is -275 compared to the Jaguars’ +225.

I’m not overly concerned about the Bills winning here; the question is just how much. They’re the better team offensively, and the Jaguars offence hasn’t shown that they can move the ball well enough. They haven’t eclipsed 17 points in a season, while the Bills have scored more than 30 in both games. 

Still, the Jaguars have a respectable defence and beat the Bills last season. 

There’s some value on the Jaguars moneyline, but I’d prefer the point spread. The Bills allowed the Arizona Cardinals to score 28 points in Week 1 despite quarterback Kyler Murray attempting closer to 5 yards per attempt. 

Pick: Bills -250

Over/Under: 45.5 

It’s easy to look at this game and think the Bills scored more than 30 in both games this season and the stagnant Jaguars offence and think the Bills should win easily here, but we have to remember that it’s not offence versus offence; the Bills need to play against the Jaguars defence. 

The Jaguars held the Dolphins offence to just seven points with 2:10 remaining in the third quarter. Then, they allowed wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s touchdown, which made it 17-14. They were holding this explosive offence down despite Tagovailoa throwing for over 300 yards. 

As their head coach said, the Dolphins had three big plays for 182 yards. 

Doug Pederson on Jaguars defense that allowed 400 yards against the Dolphins:

"Other than the big 3 plays for 182 yards in the game Sunday, our guys really did a nice job of corralling their receivers and playing physical."

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) September 11, 2024

Of course, it happened, so it counts, but it’s not as if this defence is getting beaten up, down-in, down-out. 

The Browns scored just one touchdown, and the rest of their points came from three field goals and a safety. 

I think Allen is the better quarterback than the Jaguars have faced this season, but I’m leaning under. 

Pick: Under 45.5

Gabe Davis Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

It’s revenge game time. 

Current Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis signed with the Jaguars this offseason. In Week 3, Davis will play his old team in Buffalo on Monday Night Football. 

Davis had 62 receiving yards in Week 1 and 43 in Week 2. Here, the Jaguars will take on a Bills defence that’s allowed 17 receptions on 31 targets to opposing wide receivers for 139 yards and one touchdown. 

The Bills have allowed one receiver to go for over 37.5 receiving yards in both games this season. These games came against the Cardinals and quarterback Kyler Murray, who averaged close to 5 yards per attempt, and on the road against the Dolphins, where quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions and left the game early with a concussion. 

Davis will see a lot of Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas this week. He’s allowed five catches on seven targets for 49 yards. He allowed 45 of those 49 yards in Week 2. 

Look for Davis to be included here early and often against his old team. 

Buffalo Bills Parlay Pick of the Week

My favourite parlay bet for Buffalo’s Week 3 contest is:

• Jaguars +5.5 (-110)
• Under 45.5 (-110)
• Gabe Davis Over 37.5 Receiving Yards 

This parlay has odds of +450. If you wager $10, you’ll receive $55 if you win.