Blue Jays Wild-Card Race, Standings, & Odds

Languishing at 41-50, MLB odds on the Toronto Blue Jays have unsurprisingly lengthened over the last seven days. Toronto is four games adrift at the bottom of the American League East and would need a drastic turnaround to get themselves into the wild-card mix.

Ahead of opening day, baseball odds projected the Blue Jays to be among the best teams in the American League. Instead, they are one of the worst teams in the AL. The front office has some huge calls to make before the trade deadline with rumours swirling about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.  

Toronto Blue Jays Wild-Card Race

Nine games below .500, the Jays are 9.5 games out of the final wild-card spot. 

Toronto Blue Jays Wild-Card Standings

Only three AL teams have worse records than the Blue Jays. Those teams are the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, and Chicago White Sox. The Angels lost Shohei Ohtani in the offseason and have had Mike Trout on the injured list for most of the year. Oakland is in the depths of a rebuild, and the White Sox are on pace for a 45-win season.

This is not some fluke, either. Just four AL teams have a worse run differential than the Blue Jays. They are 1.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers, who have gone 11-15 since June 9. Five teams are placed between the Jays and the final wild-card spot, which is occupied by the Boston Red Sox.

The Kansas City Royals are the Red Sox’s nearest rivals as of July 10. Kansas City is 7.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays. The 47-44 Houston Astros are on a 16-6 surge and have a six-game advantage over the Jays.

The wild-card standings make for unpleasant reading for Blue Jays fans. They are a long, long way off the pace. 

Toronto Blue Jays Wild-Card Odds

As of July 10, odds on the Jays making the playoffs are +1600 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. This carries a 5.9% implied probability, which is markedly higher than Fangraphs’ mark of 1.6%. Baseball Reference is far less optimistic about Toronto’s chances; they give them a 0.4% chance of playing in the postseason. 

It’s easy to see why sportsbooks and projection systems are so low on the Jays. This team is only 15th in xwOBA on offence. Their pitchers are 29th in xwOBA conceded. Since June 1, they rank 27th in ERA, and their team wRC+ is 93. 

This roster has disappointed on both sides of the ball, with the pitching falling well short of expectations and the lineup not doing anywhere near enough to compensate.

The bullpen has delivered a 4.80 ERA, which is the second-worst in the big leagues. Low strikeout rates and high walk rates should be a good formula for the offence over the course of the season, but the power has just not been there. Through 91 regular season games, just four teams have a lower isolated power than the Jays. 

There is little to suggest that the Blue Jays can challenge for a wild-card spot in the second half of the season.