France vs. Team USA Odds & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

Team USA avoided a major upset to head to the gold medal game, taking down Serbia 95-91 after a huge come-from-behind win.

France made big-time adjustments and avenged their previous loss to Germany, winning 73-69 to set up a rematch of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic gold medal game.

Let’s take a look at the odds and predictions for this matchup.

France vs. Team USA

• France Spread: +16.5
• Team USA Spread: -16.5
• France Moneyline: +900
• Team USA Moneyline: -2000
• Total: 178.5

France vs. Team USA Prediction

I predict that Team USA will win this game and cover the spread.

Stephen Curry led the Americans with 36 points on 12-of-19 shooting, including 9-of-14 from 3-point land, and eight rebounds in the win over Serbia.

Joel Embiid added 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting. LeBron James provided 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists.

Team USA struggled to match Serbia’s intensity throughout the first three-quarters of the game.

Serbia’s zone, switch-heavy defence where they were applying heavy ball pressure, blitzes, and staying attached to their opponents threw the Americans off rhythm, forcing them into difficult shots and errant passes.

Defensively, Team USA struggled to contain Nikola Jokić, especially on the pick-and-roll, fighting through screens and contesting the quick-triggered shots from downtown, and gambled on too many steal attempts to leave shooters wide open, allowing Serbia to hit five 3s in each of the first three periods.

Curry’s 3-pointers helped the Americans stay within striking distance, but sometimes I felt that the Americans were relying too heavily on him coming through from deep and abandoning the ball movement principles that had helped this team torch their opponents in the prior games.

To Team USA’s credit, though, they executed down the stretch of the fourth quarter and capitalized on Serbia’s tired legs, outscoring them 32-15 in the final period. 

They also upped their defensive intensity in the final three minutes by executing smart switches, sticking with their opponents on drives to the rim, forcing misses and turnovers to give them easy points on the other end, and James taking on the challenge of guarding Jokić one-on-one while limiting his effectiveness.

Their closing lineup featured James, Curry, Embiid, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker, four former MVPs.

Guerschon Yabusele led France with 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting and seven rebounds in the win over Germany. Isaïa Cordinier added 16 points and seven rebounds.

Victor Wembanyama had 11 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and three blocks. Mathias Lessort contributed 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting.

Team USA will have its hands full trying to contain Yabusele on the drive and in the paint, and they also have to account for him beyond the arc.

Lessort has gotten more run in favour of Rudy Gobert, as Lessort’s agility and ruggedness have helped bolster France’s perimeter defence and scoring down low.

The Americans will also need to stay attached to Cordinier and Evan Fournier on the perimeter, especially when France, a strong rebounding team, gains second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass..

Defensively, look for Wembanyama to patrol the paint and make guys think twice about testing him on the drive, and Frank Ntilikina to pick up his opponent’s full court and try to force the ball out of Curry’s hands.

France is dangerous, but I fear they might not have enough firepower from deep to keep up with the Americans, and I expect any combination of Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Bam Adebayo to contain Wembanyama, Yabusele, and Lessort.

I also expect James, Durant, and Curry to all have huge games in what will likely be their last Olympic contest.

Considering all of this and given Team USA’s (-2000) high basketball odds of winning a gold medal, the Americans covering the spread is my best online sportsbook bet to make.