College Football Predictions, Odds, Best Bets: Week 5

The college football odds for Week 5 are here and available at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Below, I’ll preview the five best bets of the college football weekend, including Alabama, Ole Miss, Ohio State, and more. 

Let’s check them out.

Week 4 College Football Best Bets

Week 5 NCAAF Picks & Betting Lines

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech Prediction

Spread: Miami -19.5, Total: 55.5

To this point in the season, the Hurricanes are demolishing teams, outscoring opponents 209-41 over the first four weeks. They’ve played and beaten Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State, and South Florida. 

They’ll play host to a Virginia Tech team, which has been a bit of a disappointment. They’re 2-2 with wins over Old Dominion and Marshall but losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers. 

A big part of Miami’s success has been quarterback Cam Ward. He’s completed 72.4% of his passes for 1,438 yards, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions, averages 11.7 yards per attempt, and also has 100 rushing yards. 

Miami has had some fairly easy matchups thus far, but Virginia Tech will be their toughest test of the season. 

Virginia Tech’s defence allows 181 rushing yards (103rd) per game, but it also allows only 160 passing yards (28th) per game. 

Miami’s defence only allows 168 passing yards (35th) and 64.8 rushing yards (sixth) per game, but again, the competition hasn’t really been there other than Florida. 

Virginia Tech has a dual-threat quarterback, Kyron Dones, who’s completing 59.8% of his passes for 765 yards, four touchdowns, three interceptions, 258 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. 

While I think Miami wins this game, the spread of 19.5 is too much against a formidable Virginia Tech secondary. Still, I think the Miami offence is explosive enough on the ground to get things done. Ward will have more “wins” in the passing game while Drones and Virginia Tech chase and score points from behind. 

I think Miami wins this game by two or more scores, but 19.5 is too much for me. I’ll instead take the over. 

Prediction: Over 55.5

Boston College vs. Western Kentucky Prediction

Spread: Boston College -12.5, Total: 55.5

Boston College scored the go-ahead touchdown in Week 4 against Michigan State with just 1:28 to go, ultimately downing the Spartans 23-19. The Eagles are now 3-1 under head coach Bill O’Brien. 

Quarterback Thomas Castellanos has real dual-threat ability. As a passer, he’s completing 64.3% of his passes for 729 yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions, and averages 10.4 yards per attempt. On the ground, he has 136 rushing yards and a touchdown. 

Here, Boston College plays host to Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are also 3-1, but their wins have come against Eastern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, and Toledo. Toledo is the most notable, but in Week 1, Western Kentucky was squashed by Alabama 63-0. 

I don’t think 63-0 happens here by any means, but the cast of quarterbacks used by Western Kentucky, Dalvin Smith, Caden Veltkamp, and T.J. Finley, has been up and down. Finely has taken 84 dropbacks, while Veltkamp has 75. Veltkamp had the start against Toledo in Week 4, and he completed 20 of 30 passes for 242 yards, one touchdown, and two picks. 

Finley is hurt, so it’s all on Veltkamp now. He’s been OK, averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

However, the Eagles allow 213 passing yards (75th) and 96 rushing yards (27th) per game. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky allows 176.8 rushing yards (tied for 99th) and 249.5 passing yards (107th) per game. 

The Eagles’ offence will prove to be too much. I think they beat them by two touchdowns or more in Chestnut Hill. 

Prediction: Boston College -12.5

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky Prediction

Spread: Ole Miss -17.5, Total: 52.5

The Ole Miss Rebels will see a noticeable uptick in competition in Week 5, hosting Kentucky. To this point, they’ve played Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. Ole Miss has scored 52 or more in three of those games, hitting 76 in Week 1. 

Quarterback Jaxson Dart has completed 79.2% of his passes for 1,554 yards, 12 touchdowns, and two interceptions while averaging 13 yards per attempt. As a runner, he has 115 rushing yards and three touchdowns. 

Kentucky put up a good fight in Week 3 against Georgia but lost 13-12. Kentucky didn’t have a bye in Week 4. Instead, they hosted the Ohio Bobcats and beat them 41-6. 

So, it’s hard to really gauge the performance of the Ole Miss defence, given the teams they’ve played. Kentucky’s quarterback, Brock Vandagriff, has had a rough season. 

He’s completed 57.3% of his passes for three touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt. He had just 30 passing yards against South Carolina and completed 50% of his passes against Georgia. 

In reviewing the game against Georgia, the Bulldogs were simply off. They couldn’t contain pressure, including on the opening drive to just a three-man rush. That’s not like them at all. 

As for Ole Miss, there’s plenty of talent in the trenches, including right tackle Micah Pettus and defensive ends Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen. 

I get the appeal to betting on Kentucky based on how they looked against Georgia, but on the road against an explosive Ole Miss offence, I think Kentucky gets beat badly here by three scores or more. 

Dart continues to look excellent against his first SEC matchup of the season. 

Prediction: Ole Miss -17.5

Michigan State vs. Ohio State Prediction

Spread: Ohio State -24.5, Total: 49.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are another top team in the country with very little legitimate competition. They’ve played three games this season and are 3-0, but their games came against Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. They’ve allowed 20 total points this season, including 14 in Week 4 to Marshall. 

They’ll have their first road game of the season against Michigan State. The Spartans led most of the game against Boston College in Week 4 but allowed a 42-yard touchdown to wide receiver Lewis Bond with less than two minutes to go, which cost them the game. 

The Spartans are now 3-1 with wins over Florida Atlantic, Maryland, and Prairie View. 

Michigan State has allowed a reception rate of 64.8% and four touchdowns. They also have four interceptions and four pass breakups. Cornerback Charles Brantley has allowed just five receptions on 14 targets for 42 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and three pass breakups. He’ll look to slow down freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith. 

The Michigan State offence also has averaged 247 yards (54th) passing and 153.8 yards (75th) rushing per game. 

The Buckeyes defence is more stout than anyone they’ve faced so far, but they won’t be shut out — Ohio State allowed 14 to Marshall. 

In their first road game with this new team, I think the game will stay closer than the 24.5-point spread, but together these teams score 50 points or more. 

Prediction: Over 49.5

Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction

Spread: Georgia -1.5, Total: 48.5

Here we go. The biggest game of the weekend and the 2024 college football season is here. 

Georgia and Alabama are both undefeated and coming off a Week 4 bye week. In Week 3, Alabama beat Wisconsin by more than 30 on the road, mostly against their backup quarterback. Georgia had a scare against Kentucky, beating the Wildcats 13-12. 

While Georgia played them close, this Georgia team has been saving many of its best plays for a game like this. 

Alabama runs on 56.7% of their offensive snaps, while Georgia passes on 59%. Both teams have positive EPAs on both sides of the ball. Alabama has EPAs of 0.12 per run and 0.40 per pass, and Georgia is at 0.01 per run and 0.28 per pass. 

EPA, or Expected Points Added, is a metric used to measure how much a play impacts the team’s chance to score. It shows how well a team performs on a play-by-play basis compared to their expectation. 

To summarize, Georgia and Alabama have looked excellent on offence. 

Looking at the defences, Alabama allows 115.7 passing yards (seventh) and 132.3 rushing yards (68th) per game. As for Georgia, they allow 110.7 rushing yards (42nd) and 91.3 passing yards (first) per game. 

Georgia may need to lean on running back Trevor Etienne more, while the Georgia defence’s weak point is against Alabama’s strength. Of course, allowing 110.7 rushing yards per game is far from meaning that Alabama will run all over them, but it’s still worth noting with Milroe’s dynamic rushing ability. 

✌️@Ryanwms1

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/Akxo44h0Iz

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) September 14, 2024

Alabama is the home team here, and I’ll take them as the home underdog. I think they could win this game outright. They have freshman sensation Ryan Williams and an excellent dual-threat quarterback in Milroe. 

Prediction: Alabama +1.5

College Football Parlay Pick of the Week

Below, you’ll find my ideal three-leg parlay bet. With this parlay, a $10 wager would pay $ 71.16 at +611 odds. 

My favourite parlay bet for Week 3 is:

• Boston College -12.5
• Miami vs. Virginia Tech: Over 55.5
• Alabama +1.5